Guantánamo Bay’s Future Uncertain as Biden Leaves Trump with ‘Forever Prisoners’

GUANTÁNAMO BAY, Cuba — President Joe Biden’s efforts to reduce the detainee population at the U.S. military prison in Guantánamo Bay have left his successor, Donald Trump, with a complex legacy: four so-called “forever prisoners” who cannot be tried or released, and a military commission system mired in legal challenges. As of January 2025, the facility holds 15 detainees, down from 40 when Biden took office in 2021, but its future remains uncertain.

Biden inherited a detention center that had become a symbol of America’s post-9/11 “war on terror.” Established by President George W. Bush in 2002, Guantánamo Bay has housed nearly 780 detainees over two decades. While Biden succeeded in reducing the population by more than half, his administration failed to resolve the legal and ethical dilemmas surrounding the remaining prisoners.

Among the detainees are four individuals the U.S. government refuses to release but lacks sufficient evidence to prosecute. These include Abu Zubaydah, a Saudi-born Palestinian who was subjected to CIA torture, and Ramzi bin al-Shibh, an original 9/11 defendant declared mentally unfit for trial in 2023. “These men are trapped in a legal limbo,” said Lisa Hajjar, a sociology professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “Their cases highlight the failures of the military commission system.”

The military commissions, created by the Bush administration to try terrorism suspects, have been plagued by delays and controversies. Three cases involving six detainees remain unresolved, including the high-profile 9/11 trial. In 2024, a breakthrough seemed imminent when three defendants—Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Walid bin Attash, and Mustafa Hawsawi—reportedly agreed to plead guilty in exchange for life sentences. However, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin intervened, halting the plea deals and leaving the cases in limbo.

Biden’s administration also faced challenges in transferring detainees cleared for release. In December 2024, 11 Yemeni detainees were repatriated, but others, like Abd al-Hadi al-Iraqi, remain due to legal and logistical hurdles. “No one can be released unless the U.S. government finds another country willing to accept them,” Hajjar explained. “This is a key element of the Guantánamo problem.”

As Trump prepares to take office, the future of Guantánamo Bay remains uncertain. If he prioritizes military commissions, trials could proceed, potentially resulting in death sentences. Alternatively, he could focus on reducing costs by releasing detainees and allowing plea bargains. “No one is willing to predict what a second Trump term might mean for Guantánamo,” Hajjar said. “But one thing is clear: the prison will remain open.”

The facility’s continued operation underscores the enduring legacy of the “war on terror.” Despite Biden’s claim to have ended America’s longest war by withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, Guantánamo Bay remains a stark reminder of its unresolved consequences. As Hajjar noted, “As long as Guantánamo is open, the war on terror is not over.”