Haryana Election Results: BJP Secures Unexpected Victory Amidst Rising Polarisation and Allegations of Manipulation

In a surprising turn of events, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has retained its dominance in Haryana, as shown by the recent state assembly election results. The elections indicated that the party’s support base in the Hindi heartland remains intact, despite significant challenges. The Congress, while increasing its vote share compared to previous elections, failed to seize power, highlighting a more polarized political landscape.

Incumbent Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini of the BJP is poised for a second term. Saini has been instrumental in mobilizing support among the Other Backward Classes, a strategy that appears to have paid off for the BJP. The strategy revolves around engaging marginalized Hindu communities, which seems to have worked in the BJP’s favor.

In contrast, the Congress under the leadership of Bhupinder Singh Hooda struggled to gain traction beyond the Jat community. While there was extensive support within the Jat demographic, the Congress campaign, primarily led by the Hoodas, failed to expand its appeal to a broader constituency. This inability to form strategic alliances or present a cohesive strategy appears to have mirrored previous losses in other states like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2023.

As part of their contestation of the election results, the Congress has approached the Election Commission with allegations of manipulation involving Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). The party claimed that the EVMs were ‘fully charged’ during counting, which they argue could indicate tampering. Complaints have been filed concerning 10 Assembly seats, and more are expected.

Analyzing the data from the recent Assembly elections and the preceding Lok Sabha elections reveals some stark differences. Notably, the BJP’s vote share in regions like Dabwali, Ratia, and Ellenabad saw a dramatic decline, indicating a potential strategic alliance with other regional parties, such as the INLD–BSP–HLP coalition. Meanwhile, in constituencies like Tohana and Fatehabad, the BJP saw notable gains.

Although Congress had a strong showing in the previous Lok Sabha elections, it experienced a considerable reduction in votes across several constituencies in the current assembly polls. In the Hooda family’s political stronghold, Rohtak, there was a notable decrease of nearly 1.9 lakh votes compared to the Lok Sabha elections.

This shift is perplexing, considering the party’s historical strengthening in assembly elections where BJP faces anti-incumbency. Possible explanations range from internal sabotage and poor ticket selection within Congress to a significant community shift away from the party, potentially among Dalit voters.

Amidst the political upheaval, regional parties and independent candidates played a pivotal role, altering outcomes in several constituencies, thereby emphasizing the complex political landscape in Haryana.