2024 Presidential Election Predictions: A Tight and Divisive Race

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and divisive in recent history, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a tight contest. Recent polls and analyses indicate a razor-thin margin between the two candidates, with key swing states likely to determine the outcome.

According to ABC/IPSOS polls, the race is extremely close, with 51% of voters trusting Vice President Kamala Harris and 48% trusting former President Donald Trump. Other polls, such as those from CBS and CNN, also show a slight edge for Harris, but the margins are minimal. For instance, CBS polls give Harris a 50% to 49% lead over Trump, while CNN polls show Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%.

Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University known for his accurate presidential election predictions, is standing by his call that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the election. Lichtman’s prediction is based on his ’13 Keys to the White House,’ which include factors such as mandate based on U.S. House elections, incumbency, foreign policy failure, and incumbent charisma. Despite facing significant backlash and threats, Lichtman remains confident in his prediction.

In contrast, Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco and dubbed the “world’s most accurate economist,” predicts an Election Day victory for Donald Trump along with a Republican sweep of Congress. Barraud’s prediction is based on various metrics including betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, and financial markets. He also forecasts that a Trump victory could lead to accelerated U.S. growth but warns of potential economic risks such as increased deficits if tax cuts are implemented without a plan to pay for them.

The division in public sentiment is also reflected in online searches and consumer behavior. A study by New York University researchers found that online searches for items like yard signs, hats, and shirts related to the candidates show a clear divide in public support, highlighting the polarized nature of the election.