UK Sees More Deaths Than Births for First Time in Decades, Population Still Grows Due to Migration

The United Kingdom has experienced a remarkable demographic shift, recording more deaths than births for the first time in nearly 50 years, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic. According to official figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the year leading up to June 2023 saw 16,300 more deaths than births.

Despite this negative natural change, the UK‘s population increased due to significant net migration. The ONS reported that the population grew by 662,400, reaching an estimated 68,265,200 people by mid-2023, reflecting a 1% increase. This growth was primarily driven by net international migration, estimated at 677,300 for the same period.

In Scotland and Wales, deaths surpassed births, recording 19,000 and 9,500 more deaths than births, respectively. Meanwhile, England and Northern Ireland experienced a slight surplus of births over deaths, with 9,800 and 2,500 more births, respectively. Despite regional differences, the UK as a whole reported a negative natural population change for the first time since 1976, excluding 2020.

Downing Street has responded to these figures, with a spokesperson quoting Sir Keir Starmer‘s stance that net migration should be reduced. The government aims to address skill shortages domestically rather than relying on legal migration.

These demographic trends are occurring alongside projections of continued population growth. An ONS projection indicated that the UK population could reach nearly 74 million by 2036, fueled by net migration and a natural increase of 500,000 more births than deaths, along with an increase in the population aged 85 and over.

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford commented that net migration levels remain unusually high, despite a decline from the previous year. Rules around migrant sponsorship are expected to become more stringent, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister indicated, to protect employment standards.

The profound impact of migration on population growth is evident, as it has become the sole driver of the increase. This development has sparked discussions on the role of migration in shaping the country’s demographics and has generated varying opinions on policy implications.