Trump’s Shift on Ukraine: A New Era in U.S.-Russia Relations?

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the complexities of the conflict have deepened, with President Donald Trump signaling a potential withdrawal or significant alteration of U.S. support for Ukraine. The developments follow U.S. and Russian officials’ first high-level discussions since the war began, held in mid-February in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

In a recent event hosted by the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, Professor Emerita Angela Stent and former CNN Moscow bureau chief Jill Dougherty addressed the war’s current state and evolving U.S.-Russia relations as the invasion anniversary approached. Stent characterized the moment as “a very dark hour for Ukraine,” citing the dramatic shift in American leadership and its implications for the transatlantic alliance.

“All of these resets with Russia failed because the U.S. has a very different idea of the drivers of world politics than the Russian leader does,” Stent noted, emphasizing that Trump’s perspective aligns more closely with that of Russian President Vladimir Putin. She highlighted the fragmentation of support from the U.S. and Europe for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a significant challenge.

Stent pointed out the unprecedented nature of Trump’s approach, stating, “For decades, Soviet and Russian leaders have tried to split the U.S. and Europe. And now it’s happening, not by Russia, but by a U.S. president.” Dougherty echoed this sentiment, indicating concerns over Trump’s lack of a coherent plan for Ukraine, suggesting that his focus may be more about optics than strategy.

“I don’t think President Trump has a plan or is particularly interested… He wants to get this off the table as quickly as possible,” Dougherty said. Both experts observed that Trump seems to be pursuing a quick ceasefire instead of a lasting peace agreement, which would likely only serve to embolden Putin.

“If there was a ceasefire, he might accept that, but for how long? The only ceasefire that will work is if Ukraine has security assurances to deter Russia,” Stent cautioned, reflecting on Putin’s apparent resolve to maintain control over Ukraine.

Dougherty warned that settling for a temporary ceasefire, without commitments for long-term peace, could have dangerous repercussions across Europe. “If Putin continues to move on the battlefield, it’s extraordinarily dangerous for the United States,” she said. Both agreed that Trump’s urgent desire for a ceasefire could lead to undesirable outcomes for Ukraine and the broader region.

As the conflict evolves, it is crucial to consider the motivations behind Putin’s ongoing military efforts. Stent illustrated this by discussing the apparent gains Russia has made since the onset of the war, including strengthened ties with China and a bolstered image within the BRICS nations.

“It’s extraordinary… a few years later, the Russia-China relationship is stronger than ever, and the BRICS are expanding. Putin looks as if he’s coming out of this war more influential than before,” Stent asserted.

The situation is equally critical for Ukraine’s academic landscape. Initiatives supporting Ukrainian students at institutions like Georgetown University demonstrate community efforts to respond to the war’s repercussions. Scholarships funded by donations, such as those from Antonio Gracias and Sabrina Kuhl Gracias, have helped Ukrainian students access higher education despite the hardships caused by the conflict.

Karyna Stepanovych, a scholarship recipient studying international economics, emphasized the importance of her education in contributing to Ukraine’s recovery. “For me, this scholarship means to utilize all the resources I have now at Georgetown to help my country,” she expressed.

Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, among other organizations, continues to engage in research and advocacy for Ukraine’s recovery and integration into broader global systems, all while urging the international community to maintain focus on the ongoing crisis.

With the geopolitical landscape shifting rapidly, institutions like Georgetown aim to prepare future leaders who understand these complexities and can advocate for effective solutions. As the world watches, the outcomes of U.S. policies regarding Ukraine will undoubtedly shape both national and international dynamics in the years to come.