Ukrainian Forces Face Rising Russian Troop Levels Ahead of New Offensive

Washington, D.C. — As of March 3, 2025, Ukrainian military intelligence estimates that Russia has approximately 620,000 soldiers deployed in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, marking an increase of about 40,000 personnel from late 2024. Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, a deputy head of Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate, indicated that roughly 200,000 of these soldiers are actively engaged in combat on the frontlines.

Skibitskyi’s statements, provided in an interview with RBK-Ukraine, highlight a significant escalation in Russian military presence, which included the addition of about 35,000 Rosgvardia troops designated for protective duties in rear areas. He noted that this influx allows for a deeper second line of defense if circumstances demand it.

In November 2024, the number of Russian soldiers operating against Ukraine was estimated at around 580,000. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky corroborated this trend in January 2025 by stating that Russian troop levels had reached approximately 600,000.

Contributing factors include Russia’s reported success in exceeding recruitment quotas for military personnel in both 2024 and January 2025. According to Skibitskyi, Russia enlisted about 440,000 soldiers in 2024 — 10,000 above their recruitment target — and achieved 107% of the enlistment goal set for January 2025. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, claimed that a similar figure of 440,000 recruits signed contracts during 2024.

To stimulate recruitment, Russian President Vladimir Putin enacted a decree in July 2024, providing a monetary incentive of 400,000 rubles (approximately $4,400) to recruits signing contracts from August 1 to December 31, 2024, a considerable increase from the prior federal award of 195,000 rubles ($2,100).

However, some analysts are warning that the surge in recruitment may not be sustainable in the long term, as increased military spending aimed at incentivizing voluntary enlistment could strain the Russian economy. Skibitskyi suggests that the reliance on financial incentives is likely to decline as the Kremlin aims to balance defense costs with broader economic challenges.

Furthermore, the recruitment strategy has begun to involve individuals with criminal backgrounds. Skibitskyi reported that 15% of recruits in 2024 belonged to groups under criminal investigation or serving sentences, with that figure projected to rise to around 30% in 2025.

Several Russian reports indicate ongoing advancements in tactical operations. Russian forces have reportedly conducted attacks near the international border in Sumy Oblast, with unverified claims suggesting that they have taken control of Zhuravka and advanced into Novenke.

In the Kharkiv region, Russian military units have not achieved significant territorial gains despite continuing offensive operations aimed at pushing Ukrainian forces further from the Belgorod border.

According to military analysts, ongoing Western military support for Ukraine remains essential to countering Russian advances and inflicting further losses on Russian forces. Continued aid will likely play a pivotal role in determining Ukrainian operational capacity as Russia ramps up military efforts in 2025.