Understanding Exit Polls on Election Day 2024: How They Work and What They Reveal

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election unfolds, exit polls are once again a crucial tool for understanding voter behavior and predicting election outcomes. Exit polls are surveys conducted as voters leave their polling places on Election Day, ensuring that the participants have actually cast their votes.

These surveys are typically conducted at randomly selected precincts across the country. Interviewers approach voters at specific intervals, such as every fifth or ninth voter, and ask them to fill out a short, confidential questionnaire. The questionnaire includes questions about who they voted for, their demographics, opinions about the candidates, and their views on key issues.

The data collected from exit polls is subject to statistical adjustments to ensure all voters are fairly represented. When a voter refuses to participate, interviewers note the gender, approximate age, and race of that voter to adjust the results accordingly. The results are phoned in three times during the day and are compared to pre-election polls and the voting history in each precinct before being reported.

One of the challenges with exit polls is that they miss voters who cast their ballots before Election Day through mail or early in-person voting. In 2020, about 70% of voters voted before Election Day, and this number is expected to be around 60% in 2024. To address this, multi-mode polls are conducted among absentee and early voters via phone, text, and email, and these data are combined with the Election Day exit poll results.

There is a strict embargo on any data from the early waves of exit poll results until 5 p.m. ET on Election Day. After this time, initial demographic information and views on key issues will become available. Complete exit poll crosstabs will be posted after the polls close in each state, providing a detailed breakdown of how various subgroups have voted.

News organizations, such as ABC News, will not project winners based solely on exit poll data until the last scheduled poll closing time in each state. If a race is not projected at poll closing time, the projection will incorporate actual vote data and will be made as soon as the data warrant it.