Virginia Poll Shows Tight Governor Race Ahead of November Election

RICHMOND, Va. (October 23, 2025) – Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs released the results of its latest Commonwealth Poll on October 23, revealing the latest voter sentiments just weeks before the state’s 2025 gubernatorial election.

The poll, conducted from October 6 to October 14, indicates that former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 42% among registered voters. This narrow margin shrinks from a previously reported 9-point lead in earlier polling.

L. Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia, stated that the voting landscape is highly competitive. “The findings show a decline in Democrat leads, particularly in the gubernatorial race, reflecting the intense focus of voters on candidate actions as election day approaches,” Wilder said.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a slight edge over John Reid at 44% to 43%. The attorney general’s race shows Jason Miyares taking the lead with 45% compared to Jay Jones’ 42%, indicating a significant shift from previous polling.

The poll also addresses key issues affecting voters. It shows that 27% of voters see the rising cost of living as the most influential issue for their voting decision, followed by concerns over immigration at 14% and women’s reproductive rights at 12%. This marks a shift in priorities since previous polls.

Looking ahead, 47% of respondents expressed a desire for a Democrat majority in the House of Delegates, while 44% preferred Republican control. Notably, many independent voters remain undecided on party control, highlighting a splitting of priorities among voters.

Virginia Commonwealth University is known for its significant impact in the public policy sector. The Wilder School conducts polling that serves as a bellwether for broader national trends while focusing on issues impacting Virginia’s electorate, including economic and social justice themes.

The poll surveyed 842 adults in Virginia through both landline and mobile interviews, ensuring a broad representation of the state’s demographics. The results show a margin of error of ±3.95 percentage points.