Warner Bros. Revises Box Office Forecast for ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’

When Warner Bros. began tracking the anticipated release of “Joker: Folie à Deux” three weeks ago, early forecasts suggested an opening box office of $70 million. This figure was $26 million lower than its predecessor from 2019; nevertheless, it was considered respectable. However, recent projections have shown a decline, with estimates now ranging between $50 million and $60 million.

The decrease in projected earnings for the sequel may be attributed to its genre-defying nature. The film, an R-rated installment, made its world debut at the Venice Film Festival. Its narrative shifts away from the traditional action-filled style associated with comic book adaptations, focusing instead on the psychological depth of its characters. Critics have acknowledged the movie’s aesthetic appeal and the noteworthy performances, yet they have critiqued its plot. “For a movie running two-and-a-quarter hours, Folie à Deux feels narratively a little thin and at times dull,” described one critic upon its Venice release.

These factors may have led to the confusion among the original “Joker” audience and could explain the drop in tracking and reduced advance ticket sales. Nevertheless, the film is anticipated to be a strong contender in the upcoming Oscars.

Internationally, “Joker: Folie à Deux” is set to premiere this weekend across various regions except for Japan and China, which will see later releases. Warner Bros. is aiming for an international debut in the vicinity of $80 million to $85 million.

The film reunites director Todd Phillips with Joaquin Phoenix, reprising his Oscar-winning role as Arthur Fleck/Joker. The original “Joker” film was a substantial success, opening to $96.2 million domestically and eventually crossing the billion-dollar mark globally, earning high praise within the Warner Bros. studios. Initially, there was hesitation from both Phillips and Phoenix regarding a sequel, even considering a Broadway adaptation at one stage before committing to this film.

Following the success of the first film, Phillips received a substantially increased production budget, reportedly between $190 million and $200 million, allowing the addition of Lady Gaga to the cast. Her involvement in a role akin to Harley Quinn is expected to attract a broader female audience.

The dynamic between the Joker and Harley is well-documented in comic lore, characterized by a complex and often toxic romantic relationship. The title, “Folie à Deux,” alludes to a psychological disorder shared by two or more individuals. A significant chunk of the movie illustrates the couple’s interactions through fantasy musical sequences, occurring after Arthur’s incarceration at Arkham Asylum. Despite the musical elements, the studio is cautious in labeling the film a musical, reminiscent of previous marketing tactics with titles such as “Wonka” and “Mean Girls.”

Director Phillips acknowledged the unique approach taken with the sequel, which deviates from the straightforward continuation of Arthur’s journey. At the premiere held in Los Angeles, Phillips expressed gratitude towards Warner Bros. for supporting the project, remarking that “it is not necessarily the sequel you might expect.”