Freight Market Faces Uncertainty as Capacity Issues Persist

Indianapolis, IN — Freight executives expressed concerns about the persistent challenges facing the trucking industry during a conference held on September 9, 2025. With capacity levels remaining high, industry leaders are unsure when the market will improve after a lengthy rate recession.

Senior Vice President of Account Management Matt Parry noted that the next 12 to 18 months will likely remain turbulent, despite expectations of a robust holiday shipping period in 2025. He said, “It’s going to be a bumpy next 12 to 18 months.” CEO Sam Anderson echoed this sentiment, explaining that while some shipping rates have increased, costs have also risen significantly over the past three years.

FTR Chairman Eric Starks described the current market conditions as resembling a roller coaster ride, stating, “Our customers are really challenged more than they ever have been before.” Executive Vice President of Sales & Marketing Spencer Frazier reflected on the resilience of the U.S. consumer and carrier community, saying, “It might not be fun in the moment, but it’s what we do.”

FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise provided data indicating that improvements in the freight market are not expected before 2027. He reported a projected 0.6% decline in dry van truck loadings for 2025, but a slight increase of 0.7% in refrigerated van loadings for the same year. However, Vise emphasized that a reduction in carrier capacity is essential for meaningful change.

Despite ongoing challenges, Vise pointed out that smaller carriers are holding strong due to lower overhead and debt levels. He predicted that it could take another 18 months or a significant market event to trigger substantial changes in the industry. “A lot of these operations can’t cut further because they need the revenue,” Vise stated.

Parry added that although he anticipates more consolidation within the trucking sector instead of a wave of bankruptcies, the likelihood of failures among medium-sized carriers remains. “A substantial proportion is one big accident or one big customer declining to renew a contract away from trouble,” he noted.

Fuel prices have acted as a temporary relief for the industry, yet any significant spike in diesel prices could dramatically impact operations. Anderson, who manages a fleet of approximately 550 drivers and 1,000 refrigerated trailers, warned that volatility in fuel costs is always a concern.

As the freight landscape continues to evolve, industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic about navigating these turbulent waters, with many depending on swift governmental action for further support.