Close Contests in Federal Byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg

Polling stations have closed for the federal byelections in Manitoba and Quebec, and Elections Canada assures that results will be announced tonight despite a record number of candidates in one riding. Voters in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun and Elmwood-Transcona went to the polls on September 16 to participate in a high-stakes electoral contest. This byelection serves as a crucial test for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s Liberal Party and challenges the strength of Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP). Power & Politics’ David Cochrane is providing live coverage and analysis of these results.

Ballots are being counted in both regions, and the outcomes are closely observed due to potential nationwide consequences depending on which candidates are elected to Parliament Hill. The Winnipeg-area riding of Elmwood-Transcona has been primarily under NDP control for decades, while LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Montreal is a Liberal stronghold. Any shift from these traditional outcomes could indicate critical changes for both the Liberal Party and the NDP, which have maintained a close alignment in Parliament for over two years.

In Elmwood-Transcona, the race remains a tight contest between the Conservative Party and the NDP, with the Liberal candidate possibly receiving fewer votes than in previous elections. Concurrently, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is witnessing a competitive three-way race among Liberal, NDP, and Bloc Québécois candidates. Liberal candidate Laura Palestini addressed her supporters after polls closed but refrained from speaking to the media.

The LaSalle-Émard-Verdun byelection ballot features a staggering 91 candidates, a result of calls for electoral reform, suggesting that final results may be delayed for several hours. Elections Canada has employed additional staff and conducted simulations to expedite ballot counting, especially given past challenges with similar situations.

The byelections follow significant political tensions, particularly after NDP leader Jagmeet Singh dissolved an agreement with the Liberals that had ensured government stability for two years. If Singh’s NDP fails to retain Elmwood-Transcona, a traditional party seat, it may prompt questions about his leadership effectiveness.

These byelections are critical not only for the NDP; a Liberal defeat in either riding could provoke further scrutiny towards Justin Trudeau’s leadership, especially following previous electoral losses. Elmwood-Transcona was formerly represented by Daniel Blaikie, succeeded by Leila Dance for the NDP, who is competing with Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds.

Party dynamics are at stake as opposition leaders, including Conservative Pierre Poilievre, strive to garner support from private-sector union members, a strategy aimed at broadening the party’s appeal. Meanwhile, the Liberal party is looking to maintain their position in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun with Laura Palestini leading the charge against strong challenges from other parties.