Far-Right National Rally Surges in French Election First Round

France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party has achieved significant gains, winning the initial round of the country’s parliamentary elections according to exit polls. The victory projections place Marine Le Pen’s RN at about 34%, followed by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition at around 29%, with President Emmanuel Macron‘s centrist Ensemble Alliance trailing at about 20.3%.

Macron’s unexpected decision to call for a snap election followed the RN’s surge in the European Parliament elections, as he wagered on the party not replicating its success at the national level.

Supporters at Marine Le Pen’s constituency in Henin-Beaumont celebrated the results with French flags and the Marseillaise, with Le Pen emphasizing the significance of the upcoming second round.

Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister, cautioned that the far right was at the brink of power and urged against voting for the National Rally, while Jean-Luc Melenchon announced strategies to consolidate support against RN candidates.

Pollsters predict the RN and its allies could secure a substantial number of parliament seats in the second round, aiming for an absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly.

The RN’s chance of governmental control hinges on potential alliances by rival parties in the forthcoming days, as past elections have seen collaborations between center-right and center-left factions to prevent the far right from assuming power.

Macron called for a united democratic front against the far-right threat, emphasizing the high turnout in the first round and the need to clarify France’s political landscape.

As protests erupted in cities like Paris, Lyon, and Nantes, concern over the RN’s strong performance evoked a sense of apprehension and defiance among opponents.

The results highlight a shift in public sentiment, reflecting discontent with Macron’s policies and a growing disillusionment with the current political climate in France.

Eurasia Group‘s analysis suggests that an RN absolute majority is unlikely, foreseeing a prolonged period of political deadlock or a potentially fragile coalition government.