FiveThirtyEight’s Latest Polling Averages: A Tight 2024 Presidential Race

With just one day left before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, FiveThirtyEight‘s polling averages indicate a highly competitive race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight’s national polls tracker, Harris holds a slight edge over Trump, but the margin is diminishing, suggesting that either candidate has a viable path to victory.

In key swing states, the competition is fierce. Harris enjoys a slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, with margins of around 0.8 and 0.6 points, respectively. Conversely, Trump is gaining traction in Arizona, where he currently leads Harris by 2.5 points. In North Carolina and Georgia, Trump’s advantage is about 1.5 points, while he holds a 0.9-point lead in Nevada and a narrow 0.3-point edge in Pennsylvania.

The polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model combines polling data with economic and demographic variables to predict likely election outcomes. The model updates at least once a day and whenever new data is available, reflecting the dynamic nature of the election.

As the election approaches, both candidates are intensifying their campaigns in crucial swing states. Harris is focusing on Pennsylvania, a state viewed by many as a potential tipping point, with several high-profile campaign events planned. Trump, meanwhile, is targeting North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, aiming to galvanize his supporters to vote on Election Day.