Harris and Trump in Tight Race as Election Nears: Latest Polls and Campaign Updates

With just over a week left until the 2024 presidential election, the latest polls indicate a remarkably close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to the FiveThirtyEight poll tracker, Harris holds a slight national lead over Trump by 1.4 percentage points as of Tuesday.

The contest is particularly intense in seven critical swing states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan. In these states, the margins between the two candidates are extremely narrow, often within the polling margin of error. For instance, Trump has a marginal advantage in Pennsylvania and Nevada, and a more significant lead in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. In Wisconsin, the margin is less than a tenth of a percentage point.

The Cooperative Election Study (CES), one of the largest academic election polls in the U.S., shows Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points among likely voters, with 51% supporting her and 47% supporting Trump. This survey also highlights Harris’s strong performance among female voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters, while Trump maintains a strong hold on his 2020 supporters.

The campaigns are heavily focused on these swing states, with both candidates making multiple visits. Harris recently emphasized her commitment to ‘move beyond fear and division’ during a campaign event in Michigan, while Trump spoke at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, where he addressed various criticisms and controversies.

Incidents such as the detonation of incendiary devices at ballot drop-off locations in Portland and Vancouver, Washington, have added to the tension, with officials labeling such acts as a ‘direct assault on democracy’.

Analysts suggest that winning Pennsylvania could be crucial for either candidate, with forecasts indicating that securing this state significantly boosts their chances of winning the presidency. Pennsylvania’s large Puerto Rican population is particularly significant, given Trump’s recent racially charged comments about Puerto Rico.