Latest 538 Polls and Forecasts for the 2024 Presidential Election

The latest polling averages and forecasts from FiveThirtyEight (538) provide insightful data on the upcoming 2024 presidential election. As of October 30, 2024, the polls indicate a competitive race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump.

In national polls, Kamala Harris’s approval ratings vary, with some polls showing her approval at 40% to 49% and disapproval ranging from 47% to 53%. These figures highlight the divided public opinion and the tight margin between approval and disapproval.

In key battleground states, Harris appears to have a significant lead in some areas. For instance, in Washington state, recent polls show Harris leading Trump by margins of 15 to 25 percentage points. However, other states like Pennsylvania remain highly contested. Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is crucial and has seen tight races in both the presidential and downballot contests.

The 538 forecast model also highlights the importance of early voting data and the potential for polling errors. The team discusses how historical polling errors could impact the outcome of the election and whether early voting data can serve as a reliable indicator of the final results.

In addition to the presidential race, Pennsylvania is also witnessing closely contested Senate and House races. The U.S. Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick is particularly tight, with Casey holding a narrow lead of 3.2 percentage points. Several House races in Pennsylvania are also rated as toss-ups, adding to the state’s significance in the overall electoral landscape.

The electoral map projections from 538 show a complex picture with several states classified as toss-ups, indicating that the election could hinge on a few critical states. The model adjusts polls for various factors, including house effects, mode, partisanship, and voter likelihood, providing a comprehensive view of the electoral landscape.