2024 Presidential Election: Latest Polls and Swing State Analysis

With just a week left until the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains extremely close, according to the latest polls. National polls indicate that Harris maintains a narrow lead over Trump. An average of 14 recent national polls shows Harris with a 0.9% lead, with 48.1% of the vote compared to Trump’s 47.2%.

The real battleground, however, lies in the swing states, which are crucial for securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. In these states, the polls are highly competitive and often within the margin of error. Trump is currently ahead in four swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. In Arizona, Trump leads by 1.7%, in Georgia by 0.9%, in Nevada by 0.3%, and in North Carolina by 1.1%.

On the other hand, Harris is leading in three key swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Michigan, Harris has a 1.4% lead, in Pennsylvania she is slightly ahead by 0.3%, and in Wisconsin, she leads by 0.4%.

The polling averages are compiled from multiple sources, including 270toWin and FiveThirtyEight (538), which collect data from various polling companies and apply strict criteria to ensure the quality and transparency of the polls. Despite these efforts, the close margins and historical inaccuracies in polling make it challenging to predict the outcome with certainty.

The electoral map projections also highlight the importance of these swing states. The 538 forecast, for example, uses colored gradients to show the likelihood of each candidate winning, with deeper colors indicating higher probabilities. This visual representation underscores the tight race and the critical role of swing states in determining the election’s outcome.