Svitolina Faces Mertens in High-Stakes WTA Matchup

BAD HOMBURG, Germany — Elina Svitolina is set to face Elise Mertens in the round of 32 at the WTA Bad Homburg tournament on Sunday. This match is critical as both players seek to advance in the competition.

According to detailed simulations run by Dimers, Mertens enters the match with a slight edge, boasting a 51% chance to win, while Svitolina has a 49% win probability. These numbers are based on 10,000 simulations that accounted for recent performances and various key factors.

“Using the most recent data, we ran 10,000 simulations for Sunday’s matchup,” said Greg Butyn, a Dimers data analyst. “Our prediction shows that while Mertens is favored, the competition will be tight.”

The match is an exciting clash as this will be the eighth meeting between the two athletes, with Svitolina currently leading their head-to-head record. The last encounter was a close one in Charleston last year, which Mertens won in three sets.

Svitolina, ranked 14th, is looking to bounce back after losing in the quarter-finals in Paris at the beginning of June. Over the course of 2025, she holds a commendable 29-9 win-loss record, but this will be her first match on grass this season.

Mertens, ranked 24th, comes into this matchup with a stellar 5-0 record on grass this year, having recently secured titles in Hertogenbosch and Singapore. With a 26-11 overall record for 2025 so far, Mertens has shown consistent performance that could lead her to victory.

The match is scheduled to start on Sunday at 11:20 AM ET, and betting odds reflect a competitive matchup, with Mertens at -139 and Svitolina at +110 on the moneyline, indicating tight competition. Stay updated with live match insights and expert predictions leading up to the match.