Trump’s Return Tests U.K.-U.S. ‘Special Relationship’ Amid Royal Diplomacy

LONDON — As Donald Trump prepares for a potential second term in the White House, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces the challenge of navigating a strained U.K.-U.S. relationship. Tariffs, policy disagreements, and Trump’s unpredictable nature loom large, even before his inauguration. “Trump is so unpredictable that I think the U.K. government will really struggle to manage that relationship and to engage constructively,” warned Evie Aspinall, director of the British Foreign Policy Group.

Britain, however, may have a diplomatic ace up its sleeve: the royal family. Despite their ceremonial role, the monarchy remains a powerful international brand, offering continuity amid Britain’s rapidly changing political leadership. “The continuity they have is way beyond anything any minister has,” said a former Foreign Office official, speaking anonymously.

Trump has long expressed admiration for the British royals, particularly the late Queen Elizabeth II, whom he called a “fantastic woman.” He also praised Prince William as a “good-looking guy” after their meeting in Paris. Trump’s affinity for the U.K. is further bolstered by his Scottish ancestry and his investments in Scottish golf courses.

During his first term, Trump enjoyed lavish state visits, including a 41-gun royal salute and a grand banquet at Buckingham Palace. “Trump is a deal maker, but he also is very proud, and he likes big, grand gestures and feeling important,” said Aspinall. “The royal family, to him, is the epitome of ‘I’ve made it.'”

Yet, royal diplomacy may not resolve deeper policy conflicts. Trump’s proposed tariffs on U.S. imports and his stance on Ukraine could strain relations. “Buckingham Palace will be very conscious of not exposing the king to a situation in which he might be vulnerable,” the former Foreign Office official noted, referencing King Charles III‘s environmentalism clashing with Trump’s disdain for renewable energy.

Despite these challenges, the royals could help reinforce Britain’s ties with the U.S. by emphasizing shared military, historical, and cultural connections. “Both sides would be in the business of accentuating the positives,” said Robert Hardman, author of a biography of Charles III.

Starmer is reportedly open to organizing a second state visit for Trump, potentially including an address to Parliament. However, Whitehall officials are preparing for a range of scenarios, including shifts in U.S. engagement with international institutions like the UN and NATO.

Trade remains a top concern. Trump’s vow to impose blanket tariffs on imports could impact the U.K., though officials hope the country might be spared the worst due to its smaller trade deficit with the U.S. compared to the EU and China. “The UK’s positioning has been quite astute so far,” said Robin Niblett, former director of Chatham House. “But on Ukraine and tariffs, it is going to become a lot more difficult for Starmer to navigate.”

As Trump’s inauguration approaches, the British government is bracing for a new era of diplomacy, relying on both traditional alliances and the unique appeal of the royal family to navigate the challenges ahead.