D66 Leads in Dutch Election; Coalition Talks Likely for Government

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — An exit poll released after voting ended Wednesday in the Netherlands’ general election indicated a tight race, with the center-left D66 party narrowly ahead of the far-right Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders. The poll suggests D66 would secure 27 seats, gaining 18 compared to the last election, while Wilders’ party would drop to 25 seats, losing 12 seats.

If the poll results are confirmed, this would mark a significant victory for D66 and potentially shift the country’s government back toward the center, following a period under Wilders’ far-right leadership. “D66 has been in existence for 59 years and if the exit poll is right, this would be the biggest victory in the history of D66,” said lawmaker Jan Paternotte.

Should D66’s win be validated, the party will lead negotiations to form a new coalition, and Rob Jetten could emerge as the Netherlands’ first openly gay prime minister. Pollster IPSOS conducted the exit poll based on 65 polling stations and about 80,000 voters, a method that has historically produced reliable estimates.

Wilders’ party had performed strongly in the last election in 2023, securing 37 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives. However, it has seen a decline in support due to internal conflicts within the four-party coalition that led to its downfall and an inability to finalize significant migration measures.

In a statement, Wilders expressed disappointment but vowed resilience, stating, “We are more combative than ever and still the second and perhaps the biggest party in the Netherlands.” He did not hold an election night celebration, unlike other parties.

The exit poll showed the right-wing People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy ranked third with 23 seats, a decrease from 2023, while the socialist Green Left and the Labor Party combination dropped to 20 seats, five fewer than previously held. The Christian Democrats saw significant gains, moving up 14 seats to total 19.

The campaign focused on pressing issues like migration control and affordable housing, reflecting broader trends across Europe. Despite the results, mainstream parties have largely ruled out collaborating with Wilders again, citing concerns about his trustworthiness after recent coalition issues.

Olga van der Brandt, a 32-year-old voter, expressed a desire for voters to reject the previous right-wing government. “This time there will be a more progressive party who can take the lead,” she said.

The polling was conducted amid ongoing political polarization in the Netherlands, highlighted by recent protests against asylum-seeker centers and violence at an anti-immigration rally in The Hague, which involved vandalism at D66’s headquarters.

As the country gears up for coalition negotiations, the political landscape remains fraught. Former European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans has already stepped down as the head of the Green Left and Labor Party alliance after a disappointing performance.

Coalition formation in the Netherlands is complex and often lengthy, requiring a majority of 76 seats. Various combinations of parties, including D66, Christian Democrats, and possibly even the liberal-conservative VVD, could emerge, but significant negotiation challenges remain.

Ultimately, the next government will face crucial issues like the housing shortage, which remains the top concern among voters. With nearly 400,000 homes needed for the 18 million residents in the Netherlands, addressing this crisis will be key for the new administration.