Learner Tien Favored to Win Against Mariano Navone at ATP Hangzhou

HANGZHOU, China – Learner Tien is set to face Mariano Navone in the round of 32 at the ATP Hangzhou tournament on Wednesday, September 17, at 4:30 AM ET. After running 10,000 simulations, Dimers’ advanced tennis model predicts Tien has a 60% chance of winning the match.

“We have simulated the outcome of Wednesday’s Navone-Tien match 10,000 times,” said Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn. “With the latest updates and numerous variables, we estimate Learner Tien’s chance of winning at 60%, while Mariano Navone is at 40%.” Tien is also favored to win the first set with a 57% chance, and the model gives 53% odds for over 21.5 total games in the match.

The match will take place at the Hangzhou Olympic Sports Expo Center. The tournament has a prize money pool of $1,019,185 and is part of the ATP 250 series, played on hard courts.

Tien, the seventh seed, has had a varied season on hard courts. He reached the fourth round at the Mexican Open but struggled in the Sunshine Double. Recently, Tien made it to the third round in Washington and the fourth round in Toronto. However, he faced a tough straight-sets defeat against a seasoned opponent at the US Open.

Navone has experienced difficulties on hard courts this year, with first-round exits at both the Australian Open and his previous tournaments. His best results recently were a couple of second-round appearances, but he has yet to find consistent success.

The head-to-head record stands at 1-0 in favor of Navone, who won their last match at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open. However, based on current form and the predictions, Tien is expected to emerge as the favorite.

As of the latest betting odds, Tien is -174 on the moneyline, while Navone is +150. Betting trends suggest that Tien’s overall game and ranking make him the player to watch as they both compete in the ATP Hangzhou.

The outcome of this matchup will be watched closely by fans and analysts alike, making this a key match in the tournament.