Tensions Surge Along Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Amid Geopolitical Strain

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Tensions are rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea, fueled by geopolitical ambitions and ethnic divisions. Since the beginning of this year, regional disputes and instability in the Tigray region have intensified anxieties in the Horn of Africa.

The Tigray area, rich in gold, has seen conflict that claimed over 600,000 lives and caused significant displacement and infrastructure destruction. While a full-scale return to armed conflict is not yet realized, the political fractures within Tigray, together with Ethiopia’s aspirations for Red Sea access, increase the risk of renewed violence.

Ethiopia, with a population exceeding 128 million, seeks to regain access to the Red Sea, a privilege taken away after Eritrea’s secession in 1993. As Ethiopia pursues this ambition, it faces pushback from Eritrea, which views such ambitions as a threat to its sovereignty and regional stability. Ethiopia’s strategy, known as the “Grand Strategy of the Two Waters,” emphasizes the significance of the Abay River and Red Sea for national development.

Recent diplomatic moves, including Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland in exchange for access to the sea, have further inflamed tensions with Egypt and Somalia, who fear Ethiopian expansionism. In October, a trilateral meeting involving Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt indicated growing regional diplomatic complexities, especially concerning Ethiopia’s territorial ambitions.

The historical backdrop of the conflict stems from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its decline after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. This political shift culminated in a peace agreement recognizing Eritrean sovereignty over contested territories, a move viewed unfavorably by TPLF leaders.

Despite the peace accords, tensions persist. Eritrean forces remain active in Tigray, and the TPLF has split into factions regarding future alignments with the Ethiopian federal government and Eritrea. As Ethiopia also grapples with internal unrest, the potential for a proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea looms.

Future diplomatic efforts may shape the landscape, potentially avoiding outright conflict while addressing internal ethnic tensions. However, the fragility of current peace remains a pressing concern.