Low Tropical Development Expected in Caribbean, Rain Forecasted

MIAMI – The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low-potential area of tropical development moving across the northwestern Caribbean and southern Bay of Campeche this weekend.

This area of disturbed weather, which includes showers and thunderstorms, is expected to bring beneficial rainfall to drought-stricken regions. However, the odds of significant tropical development remain low, according to forecasters.

The Bay of Campeche is typically prone to rapid formations of tropical cyclones due to its warm sea surface temperatures. However, current environmental conditions are expected to inhibit cyclone formation, forecasters say.

Even if the system organizes, its impacts would likely stay well south of the U.S.–Mexico border, near Tampico, Mexico, approximately 300 miles from Texas.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has started slowly, with the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) sitting at just 0.2 units, more than 90% below average for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, according to data from Colorado State University.

Several factors are contributing to this quiet period, such as above-normal surface pressures, increased atmospheric stability, and a lack of moisture in the tropics. Additionally, heightened activity in the eastern Pacific, running close to 30% above normal, is creating a hostile environment in parts of the Gulf and Caribbean.

The next name on the Atlantic hurricane season list is Barry, but there are currently no indications of a named storm forming soon. The climatological peak of hurricane season typically occurs in mid-September, with potential tropical cyclone formation continuing into early November.

As of Monday afternoon, another disturbance in the central Atlantic has a 70% chance of developing within the next two days. Located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, this area of disorganized thunderstorms may lead to the formation of a short-lived tropical depression.

This system is projected to move northeastward at around 10 mph over open waters, with any development hindered by higher wind shear and cooler conditions expected by Tuesday.