Texas Sees Lower Early Voter Turnout in 2024 Compared to 2020

In the 2024 elections, Texas has observed a notable decline in early voter turnout, particularly in the state’s largest cities, compared to the 2020 elections. According to a Texas Tribune analysis of state data, more than 9 million Texans voted early this year, either in person or by returning absentee ballots by November 1. This represents 48.6% of all registered voters, a significant drop from the 57.2% (9.7 million voters) seen in 2020 during the same period.

The decrease is largely attributed to a dramatic decline in mail-in voting. In 2020, 937,870 Texans voted by mail, whereas this year, only 347,652 opted for mail-in ballots. Despite the two-week early voting period this year, as opposed to the three weeks in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall early voting numbers remain high. However, the comparison is complicated by the differing voting periods and the greater emphasis on mail-in ballots in 2020.

Democratic turnout has lagged throughout the early voting period, a trend first observed during the initial days of early voting. Harris County, which includes Houston and is the state’s most populous county, saw lower turnout this year compared to 2020. Mike Doyle, the Harris County Democratic Chair, attributed this to the pandemic and the extra week of voting in 2020. Doyle remains cautiously optimistic, expecting a significant turnout on Election Day.

Republican strongholds in rural and suburban counties have maintained their voting rates, with some counties even breaking their 2020 turnout records. For instance, Zapata County saw a 14 percentage point increase in its turnout rate. This trend suggests that Republicans may be voting early at a higher rate than Democrats, based on historical voting patterns.

Despite the lower early voting turnout, the total number of Texans who have voted is still impressive. According to veteran consultant Derek Ryan, more people have already voted in this election than in any previous presidential election, excluding the 2020 election.