Tropical Storm Barry May Affect Fourth of July Plans for Millions

MIAMI – Tropical Storm Barry in the Bay of Campeche and Tropical Storm Flossie in the Eastern Pacific are expected to bring heavy rains and possible flooding to parts of Mexico, while the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close eye on emerging weather systems that could disrupt Fourth of July plans across the Southeast U.S.

The National Hurricane Center reported on June 29 that a new area for potential tropical development has formed off the southeastern coast. The system may impact millions during the holiday weekend, as forecasters warn of a low chance for development from the remnants of a frontal boundary near the coast.

AAA predicts a record number of travelers this Fourth of July, partly due to the holiday falling on a Friday, creating a three-day weekend for many. Melanie Fish, a travel expert with Vrbo, highlighted the expected surge in travel plans which could be affected if the storm develops.

“An area of low pressure could develop toward the end of this week, drifting slowly just off the U.S. coastline,” the NHC noted in its morning update. The chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone was assessed at 20 percent over the next week.

In Florida, cities along the Gulf Coast are already experiencing increased rain chances, with daily probabilities over 85 percent through July 2. The heaviest rainfall is anticipated around July 3, when the weather system moves over the region.

The eastern coast of Mexico is on high alert as Tropical Storm Barry approaches, with maximum sustained winds reaching 45 mph. The storm is expected to make landfall later today near Tuxpan, Mexico, bringing rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated areas potentially seeing as much as 10 inches. This could lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

AccuWeather‘s Alex DaSilva emphasized the potential for tropical development, stating, “The water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical activity, and the wind shear looks favorable.” He added that rain is expected, regardless of any tropical development, which could complicate outdoor plans for the holiday.

While there are currently no immediate threats to Florida from named storms, meteorologists caution that conditions could change quickly as the hurricane season progresses. The NHC is monitoring several systems, prepared to issue advisories should any further development occur.

As of 2 p.m. on June 29, the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located about 50 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico, moving northwest at 12 mph. Heavy rains and wind conditions are expected as it approaches the coast.