New Tropical Disturbance Could Become Gabrielle This Week

ORLANDO, Fla. — A new tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gabrielle in the coming days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of Monday morning, September 16, 2025, the disturbance is showing a 90% chance of development this week.

The system consists of a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and the NHC has classified it as ‘Invest 92L.’ This designation allows for more detailed monitoring and data collection, including the creation of specialized weather models. The system is projected to move northwest across the central Atlantic, gaining strength as it enters a more favorable environment.

Currently, the storm is not expected to impact land, with most forecasts indicating it will remain well away from the U.S. coastline for the time being.

Forecasters from NOAA‘s Climate Prediction Center indicate that environmental conditions across the Atlantic are becoming more conducive for development, particularly as the season transitions into its more active phase. “While the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which was September 10, has passed, roughly 60% of tropical activity typically occurs after this date,” noted David Zierden, Florida‘s state climatologist.

Higher sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean are providing “ample fuel” for tropical cyclone formation, added Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist. This warming is critical, as it typically contributes to an uptick in storm activity during late September and October.

In past years, late September has been marked by intense storm activity, with Tropical Storm Helene and Hurricane Milton both causing significant damage in 2024. As hurricane season continues, experts warn that residents need to remain vigilant. Historical data shows that many storms can form unexpectedly, especially in areas close to the U.S.

The disturbance officially classified as Invest 92L is anticipated to strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm by the week’s end, with its maximum sustained winds needing to reach at least 39 mph to gain the name Gabrielle. Meanwhile, another area of interest has emerged off the coast of Africa, signaling the potential for further developments.