Texas Senate Race Poll Shows Uncertainty Among Voters

AUSTIN, Texas — A recent poll indicates that both the Democratic and Republican primaries for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas are highly competitive and uncertain. Many voters are undecided or leaning towards candidates who have not officially entered the race. The survey, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, was released on Friday and sampled 843 registered voters from August 27 to August 29.

In the Republican primary, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn leads Attorney General Ken Paxton, 32% to 26%. However, 29% of voters remain undecided about their choice. This poll marks a significant shift, as previous surveys had shown Cornyn trailing Paxton. Pollster Evan Roth Smith described the race as a ‘fluid, single-digit contest,’ highlighting the battle for endorsements, particularly from former President Donald Trump.

The Democratic primary features former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett as speculative frontrunners. O’Rourke leads with 27% support, while Crockett follows closely with 26%. In contrast, the more established candidates, former Dallas congressman Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico, received 13% and 7% respectively. Around 18% of Democrats in the survey were undecided.

O’Rourke has stated that he is considering a run depending on the desires of Texas voters, while Crockett indicated she would weigh her options using election data. Furthermore, she needs to select which Dallas-area district to run in, as changes to the redistricting map have impacted her current district.

The survey also revealed that Talarico, who trails significantly in name recognition, is the least known candidate among Democrats, with 61% of respondents not recognizing his name. Allred’s previous candidacy appears to account for his higher recognition and support from voters.

Smith noted that the Democratic electorate is searching for a candidate who demonstrates resilience and the ability to energize voters. If O’Rourke and Crockett do not enter the race, it could open the door for other candidates to increase their visibility and campaign viability.

This fall, Texas will host the 15th annual Texas Tribune Festival in downtown Austin, featuring speakers such as former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland and CNN anchor Jake Tapper.