Market Analysis and Stock Picks in The Morning Filter Podcast

CHICAGO, IL – This week’s episode of The Morning Filter features Morningstar‘s Chief U.S. Market Strategist Dave Sekera discussing crucial economic updates, stock market trends, and highlighting key company earnings to watch.

During the episode, hosts Sekera and Susan Dziubinski began by addressing President Donald Trump’s recent trade deals, indicating that significant agreements have been reached with the European Union and Mexico. However, negotiations with Canada and India remain rocky, with tariffs heightened on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% due to stalled discussions. Sekera noted, “The market’s focus will likely shift towards the evolving situation with China, especially with the upcoming tariff pause deadline.”

Turning to the labor market, Sekera expressed concern over drastically revised job numbers from the previous months, stating, “The labor market seems worse than reported.” The latest nonfarm payrolls came in at just 74,000, significantly below expectations. “This shows the economy might be weaker than many think,” Sekera added.

This week, the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates was also a key discussion point, with Sekera highlighting an 87% probability of a rate cut in September. “Given the failing job numbers, I don’t see how the Fed can maintain rates,” he emphasized.

As earnings season continues, Sekera identified notable companies to watch, such as Eli Lilly, Devon Energy, and McDonald’s. “Eli Lilly remains under the microscope, especially following its competitor Novo Nordisk’s downturn in stock,” noted Sekera, as he anticipates mixed results from these earnings.

Speaking of major tech companies, Sekera highlighted strong performances from Microsoft and Meta Platforms, with the former’s fair value estimate raised significantly following robust quarterly results, while Meta experienced a revenue increase of 22%.

“Amazon’s results were solid but didn’t meet heightened market forecasts, causing some investor discontent,” Sekera remarked, sharing insights on the broader implications of company performances in changing economic conditions.

Transitioning to stock picks, Sekera offered insights into several undervalued stocks, predicting solid growth for companies like Alphabet, Salesforce, and Adobe, all demonstrating significant discounted rates from their fair value. He concluded, urging investors to remain attentive to the evolving economic landscape and be strategic in their stock selections.

“Invest wisely and stay updated,” Sekera advised as they wrapped up the insightful episode.